The world is changing and life in Bayside may be very different in 30 years time.

In 2050:

  • Bayside’s population is predicted to reach 128,000
  • Melbourne will be Australia’s biggest city with 8.5 million people
  • Australia’s population is forecast to hit 30 million
  • World population is on track to reach 9.7 billion.

This population growth could result in more cars on the road, more waste, greater demands on power, water and infrastructure as well as increased need for food, transport, health and education services.

We need to work together to plan our response to these challenges.

How Bayside has changed in the last 30 years

Think back 30 years to 1989-90:

  • Average life expectancy in Australia was 76.71 years
  • Bayside’s population was less than 79,000
  • New housing in Bayside was primarily single storey, single dwelling developments
  • State government austerity measures led to school closures including Hampton High, Brighton Technical and Highett Primary Schools, with the land sold off for residential infill
  • HTML was invented by Tim Burners Lee, paving the way for the web technology we use today
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the World Meteorological Organisation to share scientific research about the emerging issues of climate change and global warming.

Looking forward 30 years to 2050

  • Life expectancy estimates of between 88-96 for females and 85-93 for males*
  • Estimated population of 128,114 in Bayside (25,337 more residents than today)
  • Largest age groups are adults with established families and older residents
  • Families are the dominant household type but single person households are growing in number
  • 12,719 more dwellings needed to house increased number of residents.

Population

Bayside’s population is expected to grow from 102,737 residents in 2016, to 128,114 by the year 2050. This is an increase of 25,337 residents.

The average annual growth rate during this 35 year period (2016-2050) is 0.6% per annum.

Age groups

The dominant age group today and in 2050 will be 40-49 year olds, with Bayside home to many established families.

Seniors and the elderly, aged in their seventies and eighties will form a much large proportion of the population.
Illustration showing change in population by age between 2016 and 2050

Bayside population by age group, comparison of 2016 actual to 2050 prediction.

Households

Today and also in 2050, the dominant household type is young and established families with children.

Couple households without children will more likely be older residents such as ‘empty nesters’ and elderly couples.

There will be many more lone person households than today.

The total number of dwellings will increase from 42,232 private dwellings in 2016 to 54,234 dwellings by 2050.This is an increase of 12,719 dwellings or 363 per annum.

Average household size is expected to decrease from 2.57 persons in 2016, to 2.46 persons in 2050 – due to ageing in place, more couples without children and lone persons, and fewer couples with children.

Illustration of change in household type, 2016 actual to 2050 predicted.

Illustration of change in household type, 2016 actual to 2050 predicted.

Housing development

Residential development is likely to be ‘infill’ or medium and high density housing in activity centres.

New housing will be taken up by younger couples without children or younger families looking to remain close to their existing home or place of employment.

A segment of the older population, downsizing from larger to smaller homes, is also expected to take up the new housing stock.

Note / Source

This is a summary of the City of Bayside year 2050 forecast ‘extrapolation exercise’. When producing demographic forecasts 35 years into the future, some large scale assumptions are made which are expected to affect all of Australia and likely, most of the developed world.

* How ‘big’ is Australia’s population likely to become by 2050?

Dr Luke Buckmaster, Social Policy Section and Joanne Simon-Davies, Statistics and Mapping Section. Parliament of Australia

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/futurepopulation

Community Panel Expression of interest

Register with Mosaic Lab to join the Bayside 2050 Community Panel.